Analyst: “Signs point to GTA V release later than March 2013″

Spoiler: No one knows anything

Chris KempSeptember 23, 2012

While the internet churns out 2-3 rumours per day on GTA V’s release date, someone with an actual education and the ability to simultaneously type and not drool has put together an educated guess. Which he’s now kind of going back on. Oh dear.

Colin Sebastian, senior research analyst at Baird, has said that there are an “increasing number of signs” indicating a later release date than he had previously expected, no doubt concerned his crystal ball gazing skills are going to be called into question.

“By no means am I convinced that Grand Theft Auto V will miss March, but there are a couple of factors to consider. One, we haven’t heard anything definitive from the company on release timing.

“Second, retailers typically would want four to six months lead time to prepare for a launch as large as GTA, and from what I understand, they haven’t heard anything.

“Third, Rockstar rightly prioritises game quality over release date, and this dynamic could shift timing.”

So basically, he has about as much of an idea as the forum droolers. Thanks Sebastian.

The real smoking gun is publisher Take-Two’s projection of $1.8 billion net revenue for the current fiscal year, which ends March 2013. The company didn’t explain how they came up with such a figure, but most are speculating that the release of GTA V would account for the big revenue stream required to make that number a reality.

Back in February, Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick said, “Grand Theft Auto V is in full development and is making substantial progress,” which tells us about as much as Sebastian did.