Note: spoilers for Game of Thrones season 5 ahead. That’s the previous season, not the current one.
Sportingbet.co.za has revealed that a significant number of betters are putting their money on no-one gaining the Iron Throne by the end of Game of Thrones.
Its “No Ruler – Throne Destroyed” bet has shorted from 100-to–1, to just 7-to–1 in a matter of days.
That’s a 14% chance that the Iron Throne is no more by the end of the series.
According to Sportingbet, Daenerys Targaryen has the highest chance (29%) of ending up on the throne.
Petyr Baelish (25%), Jon Snow (23%), and Arya Stark (22%) are next closest.
You can also put money on who will win “Cleganebowl” — the expected fight between Sandor ‘The Hound’ Clegane (50% to win) and Gregor ‘The Mountain’ Clegane (58% to win).
Note that bets on Cleganebowl are void if there is no fight before end of Final TV series. One of the brothers must die for bets to pay out.
Other Game of Thrones related bets including who Jon Snow’s mother is, and whether Stannis Baratheon is alive.
Sporting bet is giving 17-to–1 odds (an almost 6% chance) that Stannis lives.
Lyanna Stark is given a 90% chance of being Jon’s mother.
Sportingbet told MyBroadband that it takes numerous factors into account to calculate these probabilities.
However, it explained that the most important step in setting the odds for markets like these is that once money starts flowing, traders need to monitor and adjust the odds to reflect the market opinion and ensure value.
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Surely killing off the blonde girl would give the show its shock appeal. Although it might tank the ratings, maybe another rape scene?
George Martin likes to include many rape scenes.