Michael Pachter – while some may not know the name, this analyst has become synonymous with the gaming world for making outlandish statements regarding his predictions of the video game industry.
Video game guestimations aren’t Pachter’s only pastime, as he’s a social, and digital media, and electronics analyst at Wedbush Securities.
While Pachter does get a lot of criticism for being overly confident with his predictions, the truth is: sometimes he’s right.
So let’s run down some of the most significant predictions Pachter has made lately, and whether his crystal ball was right or wrong.
EA bid for Take Two
In 2008, Pachter predicted that Electronic Arts would buy Take Two, regardless of what Take Two thought, and he was pretty certain.
Prediction: Incorrect – EA did bid for Take Two although were unable to buy the GTA publisher.
Call of Duty Elite
In 2010, Pachter suggested that Activision will inevitably find a way to charge subscriptions for Call of Duty.
Prediction: Correct – Activision announced Call of Duty Elite in late 2011.
Grand Theft Auto 5:
In March 2009, Pachter predicted that the next Grand Theft Auto game will come out in 2010 and will outsell GTA IV.
Prediction: incorrect: In late November, 2011, Rockstar announced GTA V is in full development, with a release expected sometime in 2013.
Red Dead Failure
In 2010, Pachter predicted that Rockstar’s open-world western sequel Red Dead Redemption was not a “blockbuster franchise”, and wouldn’t appeal to a large audience.
Prediction: Incorrect – Red Dead Redemption was critically acclaimed and went on to sell near 5 million copies globally.
PSP Go “dead on arrival”
In 2010, Michael Pachter claimed that the next PSP iteration (before being unveiled as the PSP Go) would be “dead on arrival”.
Prediction: Correct – The PSP Go launched to a dismal response from fans. Sony even came out and admitted their failure with the PSP Go.
“Definitely we didn’t do something right with [it]. So there are lots of things like the hardware didn’t have the compatibility with the UMD library and not all the PSP games were sold on the PSN store.” – Sony’s Shuhei Yoshida
Pachter’s most recent prediction is that the upcoming Wii U console will be a failure for Nintendo. Time will tell if Pachter has another hit or miss when it launches later this year.
My prediction is that Xbox 720 will launch next year, will play discs made of bacon, and will be bundled with Half Life 3.