Mega comp: PS4, Xbox 360, Tablet PC, headphones

brendanvb said:
Think XbatousaiX means that while the chances of winning the PS4 are slim, the chances of winning one of the other prizes AND the PS4 are even slimmer, so he is glad he didn't win the headset :p
Click to expand...
Exactly, I know you still have a 4% chance if you in the top 25 but if you win before the PS4 its bad juju :)
 
XbatousaiX said:
Exactly, I know you still have a 4% chance if you in the top 25 but if you win before the PS4 its bad juju :)
Click to expand...
"Bad juju!" :D

ancient_aliens_guy.jpg
 
Just gotta stay above 25, please. I wish this was during holidays and not the beginning of Uni for me. :p
 
statistically speaking, every single position in the top 25 has exactly the same chance of being selected, right? why then does human nature tell us that 1st and 25th are less likely to be picked at random ?
 
Hiro said:
statistically speaking, every single position in the top 25 has exactly the same chance of being selected, right? why then does human nature tell us that 1st and 25th are less likely to be picked at random ?
Click to expand...

Because statistically the chances of the winner being from the set of positions between 1st and last (25) is greater than the chance of it being from the set of position 1 and 25. In other words, there are 23 possible winners in set 1 (the betweeners) and only 2 in set 2 (1 and 25). This does not change the fact that each number has a 4% chance of being picked.
 
DarthMol said:
Because statistically the chances of the winner being from the set of positions between 1st and last (25) is greater than the chance of it being from the set of position 1 and 25. In other words, there are 23 possible winners in set 1 (the betweeners) and only 2 in set 2 (1 and 25). This does not change the fact that each number has a 4% chance of being picked.
Click to expand...

but that speaks to the number of candidates per set. my point being, why does it feel like "8 and 14" stand a better chacne than "1 and 25". the odds of each number are identical, as are the odds of 1/25 (as opposed 8/14)/ yet the 1/25, by virtue of them being them bookends, somehow seem less likely to be winners.

maybe that's just my personal view :-)
 
Hiro said:
but that speaks to the number of candidates per set. my point being, why does it feel like "8 and 14" stand a better chacne than "1 and 25". the odds of each number are identical, as are the odds of 1/25 (as opposed 8/14)/ yet the 1/25, by virtue of them being them bookends, somehow seem less likely to be winners.

maybe that's just my personal view :-)
Click to expand...

Gambler's instincts maybe - a hunch?
 
I feel if you number one you got bugger all chance of winning,there is no science to this its all about luck of the draw.
 
XbatousaiX said:
I feel if you number one you got bugger all chance of winning,there is no science to this its all about luck of the draw.
Click to expand...

that was exactly my point. Number 1 and Number 25 each have the very same odds as every other number. and yet my gut feel is that they won't get picked. stupid human logic :-P
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top