Okay, here goes…this is not going to be a quick read…
Cryptocurrency is the new hotness, especially in South Africa it seems. While it is obvious that the global trend and interest in crytos have increased, South Africa’s business and economic environment makes it extremely susceptible to the idea of mining for coins. It makes sense that people would want to try their hand at making some extra money, especially seeing as the value of these currencies have seen some crazy growth in the past few months.
But, there are risks. Extreme risks involved in the whole cryptocurrency market. The fact is that there are a fair few factors influencing the value of the currencies. Seeing as they are all based on a supply and demand model, they also suffer from similar risks and pitfalls.
If you look at global financial markets, cryptos are seen as commodities more than currencies. The US financial market has already classified and taxed Bitcoin transactions and investments as commodity trading, and Bitcoin use is also being regulated under trade and commodities law. The Fed has also started raising more and more regulations surrounding the trading of Bitcoins. As still the global financial superpower, what happens in America should and would most likely pave the way for all other capitalist economies around the world. So, it’s highly likely that we will see more regulation linked to other cryptos as well in the future from more markets.
This may not be the worst thing ever. Currently trading in cryptos are probably the higest possible risk investments possible, with the highest possible return rates of any investment. Cryptos are extremely volatile and susceptible to huge increases or decreases as demand for the units change. With additional regulation comes better acceptance of the units from a greater potential market, increasing the overall demand of the different currencies and driving up their price. This is highly possible to happen should either Bitcoin or Ethereum stay on their current growth trajectories.
What will be a great driver of both the value and availability of cryptos is the worldwide shortage of GPU’s. Especially in SA, where almost all high end GPU’s are sold out, will put a natural limit to the total amount of cryptos that become available, influencing their value further. I believe also that the fact that there is an ultimate market availably cap to the amount of Bitcoins that can exist, and the fact that mining will become a slower and slower process, the value of Bitcoin will still rise within the next few months.
I can’t help but feel though, that a crash is almost an inevitability for the cryptocurrency market. If general acceptance of Bitcoin and Ethereum doesn’t happen within the greater financial market, the currencies will lose steam and popularity, and ultimately crash. Another factor that may lead to a crash in the market is the fact that the barrier of entry in creating your own cryptocurrency is rather low. It’s very easy to just copy the code from GitHub, make some changes, get people to mine it and drive up its demand. More and more fly-by-night currencies will steal the limelight, leading to some major investments, down turns, and even bigger losses, damaging the overall image and appetite of the market for cryptos.
On the topic of mining, my feeling and opinion is that the ability of miners to turn profits will decrease as time goes on should cryptos not become wider mainstream. The fact is that mining will probably not be sustainable on the frenzy level it is right now for too long, ultimately leading to less profits, more miners abandoning their rigs, even more devaluation of the currencies, and even more losses.
On the flip side, my conservative and risk heavy views can be completely wrong, and the value of Bitcoin and Ethereum skyrocket to more than 1000% from the current value, and make thousands of people a lot of money. Cryptocurrencies are the highest possible risk investment that can be made right now, but with high risks comes the possibility of high rewards. No other investment has the same ROI potential as cryptocurrency investment.
Unfortunately I am too risk adverse to really get into the game. But I find the whole idea behind it fascinating.
