Wedbush Morgan analyst and crystal ball gazer Michael Pachter has seen the recent decline of game sales (as reported by NPD), and pointed the finger of certain doom at online multiplayer games.
“We think that the overall decline was due to a very large number of people playing multiplayer online games for free on PlayStation Network, and for an annual fee with unlimited game play on Xbox Live,” Pachter says in an interview over at Industry Gamers. “We estimate that a total of 12 million consumers are playing Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 for an average of 10 hours per week on the two platforms’ respective networks, and the continued enjoyment of this game (along with an estimated 6 million Halo online players, 3 million EA Sports players, and 5 million players playing other games, such as Battlefield, Red Dead Redemption, Left 4 Dead and Grand Theft Auto) has sucked the available time away from what otherwise would be spent playing newly purchased games.”
And the solution, he says, is obvious – “a business model that appropriately captures the value created by the multiplayer experience”. Or, in proper peoplespeak, pay-to-play subscriptions.
Of course, Activision’s already mucking their way out of rampant subscription rumours for Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, with everybody everywhere denying it, but Pachter reckons it’s the way forward, adding that “We think that it is incumbent upon Activision, with the most popular multiplayer game, to take the first step to address monetisation of multiplayer. It is too early to tell whether that will be a monthly subscription, tournament entry fees, microtransaction fees, or a combination of all three, but we expect to see the company take some action by year-end, when Call of Duty: Black Ops launches.”
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