PC sales slowing, consoles looking up: analyst

Market research and data analyst group International Data Corporation (IDC) has forecast a downturn in global PC sales, while things are looking up for the console market as it heads into its eight-generation.

New monthly PC tracking in the world’s top PC markets from IDC reveals slower than expected growth in China during the first quarter of 2013 (Q1 2013).

With China now the top PC market worldwide, accounting for over 21% of global shipments in 2012, the slow February results and likely impact on March are expected to lower first quarter global PC shipments by roughly 2% from recent forecasts.

Windows 8 has also been identified as a cause of the slowing demand in the PC market. “Based on our latest quarterly figures, global PC shipments were expected to decline by 7.7% in the first quarter as vendors and the supply chain work through the Windows 8 transition,” said Loren Loverde, Program Vice President, Worldwide PC Trackers at IDC.

The decline could even reach into double digit percentages before any recovery begins in the second half of 2013, said Loverde. New PC designs and competitive pricing will be required to get the PC market to recover, said Loverde.

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Over on the console front, the IDC is predicting a gaming console resurgence as new platforms arrive, with physical disc sales being the main revenue stream.

“The console ecosystem is in a state of flux since these platforms need to support an ever-growing array of non-gaming features and services at the same time that game distribution and monetization is moving in a digital direction,” said Lewis Ward, research manager of IDC’s Gaming service.

“At the same time, it doesn’t appear that alternative platforms – set-top boxes from cable companies, Web-connected smart TVs, and so on — are positioned to materially disrupt the trajectory of the ‘big 3’ console OEMs in 2013 or 2014. Discs will remain the console game revenue mainstay for years to come.”

However, The volume of packaged game discs shipped will decline an average of roughly 3% per year through 2016, as console spending shifts into digital channels, the IDC predicts.

In December 2012, PS3 system shipments eclipsed the number of Xbox 360’s shipped worldwide, despite the PS3 launching a year later than the Xbox 360 (an estimated 77 million bundles versus approximately 76 million bundles shipped).

Nintendo’s Wii U will find an audience, the IDC forecasts, with global bundle shipments exceeding 50 million by year-end 2016.

“2011 and 2012 were tough for many console game disc developers and publishers,” added Ward. “With the advent of eighth-generation consoles, starting with the Wii U, historical norms strongly imply that game disc revenue will stop bleeding in 2013 and rise substantively in 2014.”