Riddle me this, Riddle me that!

The bridgekeeper obviously overestimates how much a cricket ball, hat and cell phone weighs
 
Great.

This is my favourite riddle of all time, it may have already appeared here:

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
 
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None of that needed, my Question about him being serious was in reference to his "This is has nothing to do with the big bang theory" And missing my meme joke all together about the series. Is it possible he doesnt know how frightful a ladybug is?

I don't watch TV. We are going way off topic now though.
 
Great.

This is my favourite riddle of all time, it may have already appeared here:

Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, “Do you want to pick door No. 2?” Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

yes it is, its got to do with variable change.
 
Isn't all change variable ;)

This is unfortunately not a yes or no riddle, you sort of have to justify your answer...

you start off with 3 choices so you have 33.333333% chance of winning, they remove one option now if you change you have 50% of winning. So by changing your choice your chance of winning increased by 16.66666%
 
you start off with 3 choices so you have 33.333333% chance of winning, they remove one option now if you change you have 50% of winning. So by changing your choice your chance of winning increased by 16.66666%

You are on the right track, and this is actually a very difficult probability theory problem. I am going to give it to you anyway because it's difficult.

You are actually increasing your chances to 66.66666~%. So you DOUBLE your chances by changing. The simplest way to look at this is to say that when you start, you have a 33.3333~% chance of winning and a 66.6666~% chance of losing. Once you choose one door and the host reveals a goat behind one of the doors, they are removing that loss from the equation. Now, if you change, you change an initial loss into a win, and an initial win into a loss, in other words the initial probabilities reverse, and you double your odds. So, statistically speaking, you should change.

For a more in-depth analysis of the problem, if anyone actually gives a crap or doesn't believe me, go here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

And for a more technical analysis:
http://formalisedthinking.wordpress.com/2010/10/05/bayes-theorem-and-the-monty-hall-problem/

Right unstablebob, you're up.
 
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