Wedbush Morgan industry analyst Michael Pachter has issued a report stating that the current console hardware cycle is likely to run through until at least 2013. The report is contrary to rumors which indicate that Microsoft may launch its next console as early as 2011.
The report predicts that Nintendo’s Wii will continue to lead the console sales wars through this console cycle. The Wii’s lead will continue with its lower price and “novel input method” being cited as the primary reasons for its continued success.

The Wii is likely to hold onto its 49% market share through the end of 2009, while the Xbox 360 will retain 29% and the PS3 will come in third with 22%.

The report goes on to predict that by 2011 the PS3 will have gained equal market share to the Xbox 360. The Xbox 360 and PS3 will share 52% of the market with 26% each while the Wii will see a slight drop to 48%.

The report indicates that although there will be slight market share reductions for the Wii and Xbox 360, all three manufacturers will see increased revenue turnover when compared to previous years.

Pachter predicts that by 2015 the PS3 will have gained higher market share than the Xbox 360 due to its Blu-Ray player.
The PS3 and Xbox 360 will see a continued trend towards downloadable content over the next few years. However, physical media will continue to be preferred over digital media for at least the next ten years.

Pachter believes that Nintendo is likely to release an HD revision of the Wii at the end of 2010. This will help the Wii maintain its lead through the lifespan of the current console cycle.

Pachter’s analysis does not mention the introduction of Microsoft’s Project Natal or Sony’s PS3 Motion Controller, two factors which are likely to contribute significantly to the future of the two respective consoles.

Wedbush Morgan Securities is a respected research firm, however, it remains to be seen how many of these predictions come true. Pachter famously predicted earlier this year that Sony would drop the PS3 price in 2009, a forecast that many are still holding out for.

Will the PS3 catch the Xbox 360, or will Natal be enough to maintain Microsoft’s edge? Have your say in the forums