Have Intel’s future plans changed?

A new leak from VR-Zone shows a revised desktop roadmap from Intel, showing their plans for the microprocessor market in 2014 and early 2015, as well as expected roll-out for their new Broadwell processors.

The roadmap has gone through a few changes and some of them have big implications for Intel’s plans for 2015 and beyond if the leak proves true. It may signal a delay in the launch of Intel’s Skylake processors and indicate that the jump to 14nm production is not as successful as they had planned.

The first change is that the Haswell refresh has been pushed slightly forward to Q2 2014. The refresh will be a rebranding of existing silicon on a more mature 22nm production process, resulting in higher stable overclocks and lower operating voltages and temperatures.

Intel 2014 Destkop Roadmap leak

The refresh will also be accompanied by a new motherboard chipset, dubbed the 900-series, as well as a slight reworking of the LGA1150 socket to support the new processors and their power optimisations. This process should occur at the same time for consumers and the business market.

But there will also be 14nm Broadwell processors available from Q4 2014 for the LGA1150 socket on the 900-series chipset. This is the first indication that we’ll see socketed processors from the Broadwell family, but they will only be the higher-end multiplier-unlocked ones at first.

In their 2013 earnings call, Intel CEO Brian Krzanich noted that production of Broadwell processors would be delayed from Q3 2013 to Q1 2014 due to the impact of a “defect density issue” on chip yields, and that the new CPU family would first be seen in the mobile space.

It raises an interesting question as to what happens for Intel from that point on. Its rather unlike Intel to debut a new CPU family at the end of the year, especially because previous roadmaps have identified Broadwell to only release in 2015.

If Broadwell is being released earlier than expected, this means that Intel wants to start earning money off it immediately, rather than stock up chips for a 2015 launch. A “defect density issue” means that the methods they’re using to make the chips aren’t yielding enough good samples to make mass production viable.

Having Broadwell appear in the mobile space first in 2014 also means that any manufacturers currently working on Haswell products will have to accept that bigger OEMs like Dell and HP may get first access to Broadwell and could possibly devalue their product as a result.

Brian Krzanich, Intel CEO

If laptop and tablet manufacturers resort to waiting for Broadwell, there could be a dry spell for new products until the mobile launch in 2014.

Additionally, who would buy any of the refreshed Haswell processors or invest in the new motherboards knowing that a better, cooler and possibly faster chip was just six months away? Anyone on Haswell and a 800-series motherboard now would have to upgrade to support future Broadwell chips.

Sales could drop during that period as upgraders wait for a better deal, which isn’t good news for an industry that’s seeing year-on-year decreases in sales in the single digit range for desktops and laptops.

What about the rest of 2015? If Broadwell production ramps up enough, does it mean that the LGA1150 socket will have to continue selling until halfway through 2016 to make enough of a profit? LGA1155 ran for two years but accommodated Ivy Bridge processors and a new chipset.

Three years for LGA1150 could be a long time, especially if the performance jumps aren’t compelling in between CPU generations.

And if Broadwell does only get replaced in 2016, what will that product be? A Broadwell refresh, to recoup losses from the 14nm production process? Or Skylake, along with a rather expensive shift to DDR4 memory, new SATA speeds and PCI-Express standard?

We’ll have to wait for the end of next year to find out. For now, it looks like nothing is set in stone for Intel on the desktop front. You may have to hold onto your Nehalem processors for a little while longer.